Ownership ties between lithium mines and refineries influence how ore is sourced and how much lithium is produced in the global supply chain.

Researchers built a joint model of hard‑rock mining, hard‑rock refining and brine production. The model uses 2015–2024 data on costs, capacities and prices and incorporates measured ownership stakes. Counterfactuals are created by changing ownership stakes or restricting ore exports.

Divesting Chinese stakes from overseas lithium producers raises spot ore purchases by 20.93 % while overall lithium output changes only by +0.06 %. In contrast, a ban on ore exports to China cuts global lithium output by 25.36 % and raises the international lithium price by 77.19 %.

The results assume existing refining capacities and do not allow new capacity to be added. Therefore, future expansions that might offset reductions in output caused by an export ban are not captured.

Figures: Table 5 (effects of divestiture) and Table 7 (effects of an ore export ban) show the quantitative differences in spot ore purchases, ore price, lithium output and price.