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Artificial IntelligenceEnglishPublished

New AI model Mantis 2 can forecast disease outbreaks up to 16 weeks in advance

November 14, 2026arXiv: 2611.16935v1

During its training, the model uses a curriculum that linearly reduces the chance of sampling simulated data from 70 % to zero, gradually shifting emphasis from simulated trajectories to real-world observations. Across 30 disease‑location forecasting tasks, Mantis 2 achieved the best aggregate probabilistic accuracy over short, medium, and long horizons, and missed roughly 30 % fewer outbreak peaks than Chronos‑2, the next‑best model. The peaks it correctly anticipated were identified more than six weeks in advance on average. However, the evaluation is retrospective; improved forecast scores do not automatically guarantee better real‑time decisions or reliability in operational settings.

Source paper

Universal Infectious Disease Forecasting with Mantis 2

Artificial IntelligenceQuantitative Biology
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New AI model Mantis 2 can forecast disease outbreaks up to 16 weeks in advance | arXiv News